Throughout this week, I will reveal my picks for this year’s Final Four, as well as detail why they are threats to win it all. You can find parts 1 & 2 here and here. My official pick to cut down the nets in Atlanta will run tomorrow.
Indiana Hoosiers (1
Seed – East Region)
Coach: Tom Crean
Conference: Big Ten
Record (Conf.
Record): 27-6 (14-4)
Rankings: Associated
Press – 4, USA Today/Coaches – 4, RPI – 7, KenPom.com – 3
You win with talent. Not that I’m breaking any news here,
but every year around this time people seem to forget that fact when filling
their brackets, getting caught up in sleepers and storylines and everything
except, you know, which team has the best basketball players. Nine out of the last ten national champions
have had future NBA lottery picks on their team, and Mason Plumlee, a member of
Duke’s 2010 Championship squad, has a decent chance of making that a perfect
ten in this year’s draft. Teams like UCONN in 2011, who weren’t a 1 or 2 seed,
still had lottery picks like Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb on the roster. Great
coaching and a favorable bracket are great, but if you don’t have the horses, you’re
going to run into trouble, and no team in the tournament has more thoroughbreds
than the Hoosiers of Indiana.
When talking about keys for Indiana, you have to start with
the man in the middle, Cody Zeller. The 7-foot sophomore is an incredibly
efficient player, averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds a game while shooting 57%
from the field and 75% from the free-throw line. Zeller is not a terribly
athletic player, but he has an array of moves around the basket, great touch,
and a strong body that he knows how to leverage to his advantage. When he is
assertive in calling for the ball and aggressive in his attacks, the Hoosiers
are almost unbeatable, going 15-2 in the 17 games which Zeller had double-digit
shot attempts. Any team that hopes to beat Indiana has to have someone who can
give Zeller trouble around the basket, and there just aren’t many guys like
that around.
However, keeping Zeller in check alone isn’t nearly enough
to topple Indiana. The Hoosiers have 4 players including Zeller who average
double figures, and Junior wing Victor Oladipo has turned into a one-man
wrecking crew. The 6’5” wing from Maryland is the best two-way player in the
country, averaging 14 points per game on 60% shooting (44% from 3) while being
named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. As important as Zeller is to the
Hoosiers fortunes, without Oladipo’s play-making on the perimeter and dynamism
on defense Indiana’s title chances would be non-existant.
It’s not a two-man show at Indiana either. Chirstian Watford
is a stretch four who provides sharp-shooting from distance on offense (49%
from 3), and rebounding and length on defense with his 6’9” frame. Jordan Hulls
is a guard with good ball control (3.1:1.2 Assist/TO) and mad bomber range (46%
from 3 on 5 attempts a game). Freshman Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell plays beyond his
years, doing a great job distributing to his many scoring options (4.2 APG) and
making his freebies (80% from the FT line) in heavy minutes for a first-year
player (28.2 MPG).
A lot of people are down on Indiana’s title chances because
they aren’t convinced that he’s anything more than a great recruiter who is average
at best as an in-game tactician. For years, that same description followed John
Calipari around, until he recruited enough talent to break through and win a
title in 2012. Now analysts mention him as one of the best in game strategists in
college. Indiana will win because they have better basketball players than
everyone else. It may be a boring reason, but it doesn’t make it wrong.
You can follow Andy on twitter at @AMOhoop34
