Why I’m Sad To See The NBA Lockout End

When news broke early Saturday morning that the NBA Owners and NBPA had tentatively agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement that would save the season and start on Christmas Day, it was met with quite a bit of enthusiasm across the internet. Coming off the most successful season (by TV Ratings) in the NBA’s history, the public was anxious for the league to get back to work and give the fans another season of stellar play and myriad storylines. I, on the other hand, met the news of the lockouts end with feelings of sadness and resignation. I had accepted in my mind a year without an NBA season and had even gotten to the point where I was looking forward to it, for a couple of different reasons, after the jump.

Good Luck Is Not Enough

If Bill Polian is sitting on the number one pick in the 2012 NFL Draft next April, I’d 100% understand if he selects Andrew Luck as his QB of the future.  I understand how it would be near impossible NOT to take him.  He’s the most decorated college QB since Peyton Manning.  He would have been the number 1 overall pick last year if he declared. People have suggested that teams are tanking the season just to be able to pick him, also known as the “Suck For Luck” campaign. He’s a slam dunk to be a starter for 10 years and make a half-dozen pro-bowls and possibly even a championship or two. You can’t possibly go wrong hitching your franchise to Andrew Luck’s right arm.

But if I were sitting in that GM chair next April, with the #1 pick and that clock ticking down, the name “Andrew Luck” would not be what comes out of Roger Goodell’s mouth.

If I’m hitching my franchise to a QB, I’m hitching it to the right arm (and legs) of Robert Griffin III, and I wouldn’t think twice.

The above video is billed as the highlight video for the Baylor Bears football team from their upset victory over Oklahoma, but that isn’t accurate. What it really is Robert Griffin III’s emergence into the national consciousness, with a few plays not involving him accidentally included for some reason.  Griffin’s stat line doesn’t tell the whole story, but lets start there. RGIII was 21-for-34 passing for 479 yards (School Record) and 4 TD’s, while also managing 72 yards rushing, combining for 551 total yards of offense. Baylor as a team managed 616. To say Griffin was the focal point of the Baylor offense is an understatement.  He was the entirety of the Baylor offense.

It’s not like this performance came out of nowhere either. Griffin has been a Heisman Trophy candidate the entire season.  He has thrown for 3572 yards, 33 touchdowns, against only 5 interceptions, while also rushing for 550 yards and 5 additional TD’s. Through his first 3 games he had more TD passes than Incompletions. He’s completed at least 70% of his passes in 7 of his 10 games this season.  He is a statistical machine.

Griffin truly shines, however, when you have the privilege to watch him play and see how he racks up all those insane numbers. A world class track star in high school, he runs with long strides that disguise just how fast he’s really going, making it seem like it just isn’t very hard for him. He possesses an absolute cannon of a right arm, throwing the most gorgeous deep ball in all of College Football right now.  His accuracy is pinpoint, as suggested by his inhuman 72.9% completion percentage.

The bow on this package is his attitude. He is a tireless worker, transforming himself from purely an athlete as a freshman to now a true quarterback. He’s a great leader, evidenced by the glowing praise all his teammates constantly give him.  He also comes across as a very mature, level-headed individual, already having a fiancé and never seeming to be too high or low emotionally.

Andrew Luck is the safe play, the guaranteed success. He has the pedigree of a QB father, the experience of a pro-style system, a myriad of physical gifts of his own.  Andrew Luck will be an excellent NFL quarterback.  But Robert Griffin is a world class athlete. Robert Griffin has a better arm. Robert Griffin is an unimpeachable leader.

Robert Griffin, is better.

Alex Smith Is Redeemed. Alex Smith Must Go.

I never expected Alex Smith to be this good this year. I predicted the 49ers would go 5-11 as they struggled with a new coach in a shortened off-season, and that Alex Smith would occupy the QB position until Week 15 when rookie Colin Kaepernick would take over to gain some experience going into next season.  I believed whole-heartedly in the Jim Harbaugh era and its promises of future success. I didn’t believe that success would arrive in 2011.  And I definitely didn’t believe that success would come with Alex Smith running the team to near perfection.  The man has played well beyond everyone’s expectations, managing the game beautifully, almost always making the right audible at the line, and even racking up some impressive passing numbers when the situation has called for it.  I could probably count the number of ill-advised throws he’s made all season on one hand.  I would say no QB in the league has played smarter than Alex this season.  He has finally proved that he is not a bust of the Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf vintage.  He is vindicated.

But if the 49ers want to fully capitalize on their newfound success and re-emerge as a football dynasty, Alex Smith must go.

Almost every facet of Alex’ game has improved under Harbaugh.  His confidence has soared, his decision-making has improved drastically, he’s reading defenses better, etc.  But there is one facet that hasn’t improved and it’s the skill that history has showed can’t really be improved.  Accuracy.  Now I know Smith’s completion percentage is at a career high, but that is a reflection of his improved decision making and always finding the open guy rather than actually being anymore precise with the placement of his thrown balls.  There are still 2 or 3 big plays every game that Alex gives away because he either overthrows his receiver and doesn’t give him a chance to catch it, or doesn’t hit his receiver in stride and allows the defender to make a play on the ball. 

He gets away with these accuracy issues because of his spectacular decision making, always finding the most open receiver and therefore not needing to be incredibly accurate. But in the playoffs as the defenses get better and the throwing windows tighten, this will rear its ugly head. The biggest problem will be when a secondary steps up and is able to blanket the receivers, and he needs to throw someone open. I have not seen anything out of him in the past to make me think he can do that.  The elite, franchise qb’s, the multiple super bowl winners, they all have the ability to throw a receiver open whose tightly covered, simply by putting the ball in the ONLY possible spot that it could be caught. An elite QB needs to make the throw that Ben Roethlisberger makes at the :58 second mark of this video.

I remember watching that game live. My first thought was “WHAT A THROW!” My next thought was “Never in a million years could Alex Smith have made that throw.”  And that is essentially why I can never fully get on-board with the Alex Smith movement.  He is playing the best football of his career, he may be the smartest QB in the league right now, but when it’s 4^th and 7 from the 19-yard line and his receivers are all blanketed, and he needs to put that football in a 6-inch window to win the game, I don’t think he can do it. And if he can’t, then the 49ers need to try to find a quarterback that can, or else waste this window of opportunity.