Looking At The Bigger Picture: Why trading Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut was the Right Move

I was going to get into my NCAA Tournament predictions, but I guess i'll get to those later since I might as well address the monster trade made yesterday.  From what I’ve seen online, whether you think this was a good or bad move mainly comes down on what you think of Monta Ellis.  I’ve addressed my thoughts on Monta Ellis here before, and the cliff notes version reads like this: I’m not a fan. 

His scoring came at the expense of offensive cohesion and his pretty steals numbers came from his constant gambling, which frequently put the Warriors in mismatches and unfavorable rotations.  Over the past 3 years, the team has been better when he’s off the court than on it by +/-, and just the same by record. While a great scorer and a highlight machine, there is no tangible proof that Ellis made the Warriors any more of a winner over the past 3 years.  That’s why I’ve been looking forward to seeing him traded. Frankly, I didn’t really care what came back as long as Ellis was going out.

Aside from the fact that Monta was a fan favorite, I believe part of the reason this trade is being met with suck vitriol from most of the fan base is that a lot of fans simply aren’t well educated on Andrew Bogut and what he does. I’ve read online comments and heard talk show callers say that Bogus is an overrated bust of a #1 pick.  That couldn’t be farther from the truth.  Bogut has averaged a double-double each of the past three years.  In 2009-2010 he was voted to the All-NBA 3^rd Team.  He is widely regarded as one of the best defensive Centers in the NBA. Andrew Bogut, when healthy, is the 3^rd best center in the NBA behind Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum, and I’ve heard more than one expert say that they’d take a healthy Bogut over a healthy Bynum.

Now, obviously the key here is “when healthy”, but Bogut’s injury history is not a red flag on the level of Greg Oden’s or even Steph Curry’s.  Bogut has missed significant time due to injuries, absolutely, but his aren’t reoccurring injuries, they’re freak accidents.  His current ankle fracture was from landing on an opposing players foot after going for a blocked shot, with no ligament damage a la Steph.  His shoulder and elbow injuries from 2010 happened when, after getting a dunk, he was bumped by Amare Stoudemire and fell awkwardly to the ground.  Freak injuries happen, and there is nothing to suspect that Bogut is simply cursed to keep having this type of bad luck.

Even the fact that this deal cripples the team in the short term is a good thing.  With Bogut unable to play, Monta gone, and Steph’s ankle still and issue, this team may very well be bad enough to finish in the bottom seven and retain their 1^st round draft pick.  With Monta, they almost certainly were going to lose it.  So if you look at the trade as we may pick up a 1^st rounder in the process, it looks even better.

Beyond just the players involved, I like this trade because it’s a bit of a sea change for the Warriors and their management.  For a franchise that traditionally has been absolutely terrified of doing anything that would make the fan base mad, to trade away the most beloved player on the team for a player that is not a huge name but is a better basketball fit is refreshing.  When taking the emotional attachment out of the equation, this trade is upside from just about every angle: You get rid of an overrated, defensive liability of a SG while acquiring an elite C, you allow Klay Thompson to get starters minutes the rest of the way so he can accelerate his development, You now have 15 million in expiring contracts next season to either trade or get cap room, and the team is now bad enough this year that they have a good shot of holding on to their first round draft pick in a loaded draft.  I’m not happy that Ekpe Udoh had to be included, but it’s a sacrifice that I think was rightly made.  The fans may be ready to riot today, but winning cures all ills, and the Warriors are in a better long-term position to win today than they were yesterday.