Wild-Card weekend, one of the greatest 2-day stretches on the sports calendar. After fighting for 4 months to make the post-season, 4 teams will find their playoff experience to last a whole 3 hours. The NFL playoffs are the most unforgiving of all the major sports, with the single elimination format potentially sending a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were 1 game away from the #1 seed in the AFC, home immediately, with no chance for rebound. Thanks for playing, come back next year. This makes for interesting matchups, incredible plays, and crazy upsets. Think Seahawks over Saints last year. Only in the NFL do the Seahawks advance off that one game. While that makes betting these games nerve racking and infuriating, it makes the viewing experience that much more enjoyable. Not that I would EVER partake in something as morally questionable as gambling, but if I did, this is how I'd be risking my money (Home team in all caps):
HOUSTON TEXANS (-4) over Cincinnati Bengals
This was the hardest game of the weekend for me to pick, but after mulling it over for a few days, I decided to ride with the Texans. Their QB situation is precarious, to put it nicely, and the Bengals have played a lot of good teams really tough. However, there were a few factors that ultimately put me over the edge with the Texans.
1.) The Running Game: The Texans and the Bengals have similar M.O.'s on offense, with each team starting everything around a power running game. The difference is the Texans are MUCH better at it than Cincinnati. Even with a huge question mark at QB, the Texans were still able to run the ball towards the end of the regular season, and Arian Foster and Ben Tate are talented enough to make it work even with 8-man boxes all day.
2.) The Home Crowd: Home Field traditionally hasn't meant much in the wild-card round, but if there is one game where it would come into play, it'd be this one. Houston is playing in the first playoff game in franchise history, the fans are frothing over this and will be going wild, and Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton will be making his first career playoff start, on the road, against a team they already lost too in the regular season at home. Andy Dalton is going to be a very good pro and will win plenty of playoff games in his career, but winning his first start on the road against a crazy pumped fan base is not going to happen.
3.) It's the Bengals: The last time they made the playoffs, in 2009, they went as AFC North Division Champions after going 6-0 in their divison. They promptly lost convincingly at home in the Wild-Card round. The time before that, in 2005, former franchise QB Carson Palmer had his knee torn to shreds on the first pass of the game, and eventually lost to bitter rival Pittsburgh. Before that, their last playoff appearance was in 1990. They're called the Bungles for a reason.
Final Score: Houston Texans 20, Cincinnati Bengals 13
Detroit Lions (+10.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
I know the Saints are on a roll, that their offense is operating at an insane level, that if Drew Brees is on he is impossible to beat. I know all of this. So why am I picking Detroit? Because everyone seems to forget that the Saints defense is horrendous, and that any team containing Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will always be extremely dangerous. The Lions are a good team, with a good defense and a great offense. They have the talent to win this game outright. I don't think they will, but they will absolutely keep it close and make Brees and Co. work the full 60 minutes for the win.
Final Score: New Orleans Saints 31, Detroit Lions 28
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Atlanta Falcons
The schizo Giants scare the crap out of me. If the team that beat the Patriots shows up, they win this by 2 touchdowns, easy. If the team that lost to the redskins (TWICE!!!!) shows up, they'll lose by 2 touchdowns, easy. The reason why i'm actually rolling with the NYG's is because they're playing the only team that disappoints just as much, but without the high quality victories. Mike Smith has been embarassed in each of the Falcons playoff games under his tenure, and Matt Ryan is not the elite QB everyone thought he'd develop into, and his playoff performances have not inspired confidence. He has thrown for less than 200 yards in each playoff start, and has more INT's than TD's. The Giants are frustrating as all hell, but I'll have faith they'll show up for the playoffs, and the Falcons don't have a prayer of beating a motivated Giants team.
Final Score: New York Giants 30, Atlanta Falcons 17
Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) over DENVER BRONCOS
This is the easiest game of the weekend. The Broncos are starting Tim Tebow, and Tim Tebow is a horrible QB. Lesser defenses have completely shut down the Broncos in recent weeks, so there is no chance they move the ball on Pittsburgh. Big Ben's ankle will limit him, but his defense will give him short fields to navigate, and the loss of Brian Dawkins severely weakens the Broncos secondary. Pittsburgh might not score much, but they won't need to against the Broncos high-school level offense.
Final Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Denver Broncos 6
Current Record : 0-0
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