The Tools of Ignorance: Why Moving Buster Posey To First Base Would Be A Bad Idea

Buster better not be taking that gear off anytime soon.

In Baseball, not all numbers are created equal.  A random players stat line, read alone may not properly tell you how good that ball player is.  Context is needed, most importantly in the form of what position the athlete in question plays.

Just for Fun, lets go with a Pepsi Challenge right now, here are two unnamed players stat-lines from 2011.

Player A: .273 AVG, .332 OBP, .460 SLG, .792 OPS

Player B: .276 AVG, .326 OBP, .466 SLG, .791 OPS

Two players, two nearly identical stat-lines, two different positions, and two different perceptions. Player A is Asdrubal Cabrera, the starting shortstop for the Cleveland Indians, AL All-Star Starter, and one of the 5 best offensive shortstops in the MLB.

Player B is the immortal Mike Carp, first baseman for the Seattle Mariners.  Among first basemen, his On-Base plus Slugging Percentages (OPS) ranked 22^nd in 2011, among the bottom 3^rd of first basemen in the league.

Two almost identical stat lines, yet the shortstop is an All-Star, and the first basemen is well below average for his position.

In a nutshell, this is why the San Francisco Giants need to play Buster Posey at Catcher, and continue to play him there until he’s completely run into the ground.

I understand why Giants brass and Giants fans might want to get Buster out of his catchers gear as soon as possible.  This man was the catalyst for San Francisco’s only World Series win in history. He’s the face of the franchise and a potential superstar.  He’s one of the few threats in the Giants anemic lineup, and a potential future MVP candidate. And after being subjected to about 500 different replays of last years season ending ankle injury the last few months, the thought of seeing Posey suffer another serious injury while behind the dish understandably makes many people physically ill.

But with advanced statistics becoming more and more accurate, the numbers are clear: Buster Posey has to play Catcher, or else he loses almost all of what makes him valuable in the first place.  Buster is a very talented young player with a bright future, and is an above-average hitter no matter what position on the field you put him.  But for him to be “Superstar” valuable or “MVP” valuable, then Catcher is his only position. 

Repeating the Pepsi challenge from up above, Posey hit for a .305 BA, .357 OBP, .505 SLG, and 862 OPS as a Rookie in 2010. Seeing as his 2011 stats pre-injury were a bit lower, this seems like a fair base-line for what his future production should roughly be.  His .862 OPS ranked as 3^rd best among all Major League Catchers, and you couple that with his elite defensive skills (4^th in NL in Caught Stealing percentage) and that gets you an MVP candidate.

Now take those same numbers and throw them amongst First Basemen, and the picture changes.  Among 2010 First Basemen, an .862 OPS would have ranked 11^th in the majors.  Still above average, but no longer elite, and his defense would take a similar hit, dropping from elite to merely above average because his best weapon as a catcher, his arm, becomes useless at first.  Sure, Buster’s numbers would still be better than what anyone put up at 1B last year, but it wouldn’t be worth the loss in production you’d get at the catcher’s spot.  As horrendous as Aubrey Huff’s 2011 campaign was, it still was closer to Posey’s numbers than either Chris Stewart’s or Eli Whitside’s 2011 efforts behind the plate.  Simply put, while the Giants have somewhat palatable options at First Base, they have NONE at Catcher, so that is where Posey needs to stay.

Besides looking down the road a few years, there is a player already on the roster that not only may need to be moved to First Base, but has numbers that profile better as a First Basemen.

Posey may be the most famous hitter on the team, and the one all the girls (at least the ones in my family) swoon over, but “The Panda” Pablo Sandoval is the best hitter on the team.  His 2011 slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) of .315/.357/.552 had him tops among Major League 3^rd Basemen, and also would have been 7^th among 1^st basemen.  While Camp Panda was a rousing success in getting Pablo to slim down last year, it is a legitimate question to wonder how long a man of his size can play a position like 3^rd base.  In a couple of years Pablo may need to be moved across the diamond, and if I have to choose between Pablo and Buster at 1^st, I’m going with Pablo.

As terrifying as it is for all involved, Buster Posey needs to play Catcher, and stay at Catcher for the foreseeable future.  If it ends up shortening his career in the process, then that’s just the risk that needs to be taken to insure that the Giants give themselves their best chance at winning another Championship.

You can follow Andy on twitter at @Amohoop34