The Madness Is Here!!!!

The best day of the year is finally upon us, as the First Round of the NCAA Tournament gets underway.  I’ve already written my ode to March Madness, so this post will be my predictions for todays slate of games.  Just for fun, I’ve included what my wagers would be if I wasn’t staring up longingly at the poverty line.  I will post my complete bracket at the end so my success or failure (almost certainly failure) will be officially documented.  To the picks! (Teams seed will precede the team name)

(6) Murray State (-4 spread) (-180 moneyline) over (11)Colorado State

Murray State is legit.  Isaiah Canaan is probably the best Point Guard in the country, and he has a legit supporting cast and a Coach who has suffered exactly 1 loss in his head-coaching career.  They also beat the breaks off a top 25 ranked St. Mary’s team a few weeks ago.  On the flipside Colorado State had exactly zero road wins against the RPI top 50. Murray wins, and surprisingly easily.

(8) Kansas State (-5) (-235) over (9)Southern Miss

Kansas State is bigger and more athletic, and has the better wins.  Southern Miss was falling apart as the season was coming to an end against less than stellar C-USA competition.  KSU should win this by double digits.

(4) Louisville (-7) (-350) over (13) Davidson

Louisville is peaking at the right time, just won the Big East Tournament, and plays a frenetic, 40 minutes of hell style that forces turnovers and flusters teammates, when Louisville gets the turnovers rolling, they can run away from anyone.  I think that’s exactly what they do.

(13) Montana (+9) over Wisconsin (-500)

I think Wisconsin wins this game, but they rarely beat anyone by double digits due to their slow pace and occasional dry spells, and Montana is not a bad squad at all.  Montana keeps it close and respectable, but ultimately bows out late.

(3) Marquette (-5.5) (-255) over (14) BYU

I’m not a big Marquette fan and think they’ll be out sooner rather than later, but they’ll waltz past a tired BYU team that honestly isn’t very good and needed an epic collapse from Iona to even get this far.

(16) UNC-Asheville (+15) over (1) Syracuse (-1500)

Syracuse has rarely lost, but they’ve also rarely been dominant, and that was with Fab Melo, who has been declared ineligible. UNC-Asheville is not a bad 16 seed, and should be able to avoid getting run out of the gym.  If a 16 was going to beat a 1, this would be the game.

(12) Long Beach State (+4) (+160) over (5) New Mexico

Long Beach has the best player in the game in scoring machine Casper Ware, and acquitted themselves well in a brutal non-conference schedule, and then ran roughshod over the rest of their conference. There’s always a 12 over 5 upset, and this seems as good a pick as any for that one.

(5) Vanderbilt (-5) (-230) over (12) Harvard

In the battle of the nerds, one side just beat Kentucky, while the other side lost 2 of their last 3 games in the Ivy League.  This one doesn’t seem that difficult to figure out.

(1) Kentucky (-25.5) over (16) Western Kentucky

25.5 is a lot of points, but John Calipari teams thrive in the early rounds. With as much talent as they have, they consistently cover against low seeds because such weak teams don’t exploit their deficiencies.  This is going to turn into a dunk contest after about 10 minutes.

(12) VCU (+6.5) (+255) over (5) Wichita State

Considering the hot streak they’re currently on, and the crazy run they went on last year, no way in hell am I betting against Shaka Smart’s boys.

(10) West Virginia (+1) (-105) over (7) Gonzaga

This is basically a home game for West Virginia, and I really don’t think any of the WCC teams are as good as advertised. Plus, I love Bob Huggins too much to pick him to lose to the Zags.

(3) Baylor (-7.5) (-350) over (14) South Dakota State

This one scares me because if any team has the potential to give us a spectacular first round flameout, its Baylor.  However, I have to believe this Baylor team is too talented to let South Dakota State hang around. I hope.

(9) Connecticut (-1.5) (-125) over (8) Iowa State

Connecticut has been up and down this year, but talent wise they are on a different level than Iowa State, and have been playing better as of late.  Plus, Jim Calhoun is back, and I have to think that makes a decent difference.

(13) New Mexico State (+6) (+225) over (4) Indiana

Is this a biased pick because I played high school ball against the best player for New Mexico State, Wendell Mckines? Absolutely. But its also somewhat reasonable.  New Mexico State was dominant in their conference tourney, Mckines is a legit monster who is getting some NBA buzz, and all of Indiana’s big wins were at home.  Their fans may travel well, but it still won’t be Assembly Hall.

(2) Ohio State (-17.5) (-4500) over (15) Loyola

Ohio State really good, Loyola not so good. I have no interest in delving any deeper.

(6) UNLV (-5.5) (-240) over (11) Colorado

UNLV beat North Carolina and was ranked for most of the year, while Colorado got in by winning the conference tournament of the ungodly horrid Pac-12. You can make the argument that Colorado has momentum on their side, but its not like they actually had to beat anyone good to win that conference tournament.

And here is my bracket for the record.