The Talkin’ Reckless 2012 MLB Season Preview Part One: AL West

To celebrate the start of the baseball season, I'm rolling out a massive, multi-part preview that will contain so many predictions and proclamations I will either be hailed as a genius or a moron by the end of the season (the smart money is on moron). How many parts, i don't quite know yet, but I will cover every division in the league and predict all of the major awards. Enjoy!

Growing up I very much enjoyed Baseball, but it was a clear 3^rd on my sports priority list behind Basketball and Football.  The non-stop action of basketball and pure violence of football held a greater connection in my ADD-addled mind. As I’ve gotten older and (hopefully) less of a space case, my love for baseball has grown every year.  I’ve learned to appreciate the smaller, more detail oriented parts of the game, like a well executed hit-and-run, or beautifully turned double-play.  It’s gotten to the point that no regular season sporting event in any sport will hold my attention better than a good old-fashioned pitcher’s duel.  Against all odds, MLB’s opening day has become one of my favorite days on the sports calendar, besting both the NFL’s and NBA’s opening days.  And with opening day coming up on April 5^th, I figured now was the time to take a stab at predicting just how this season will shake out, from the standings to the awards to who is eventually going to win the whole thing.  The boys of summer are finally back.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST PROJECTED FINISH

1. Anaheim Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland Athletics

There may not be a bigger difference between the top and bottom halves of a division in all of baseball.  Anaheim and Texas are both legitimate contenders for the World Series, and the Athletics and Mariners are both legitimate contenders to reach 100 losses. I don’t think Seattle and Oakland will sink quite that low, but they’ll probably be all but eliminated from the division race by early June.

There’s just not a whole lot to get excited about in Oakland this year. Their rotation has been completely gutted with an eye towards the future, and the bullpen took a hit with Andrew Bailey departing.  The lineup has almost completely turned over from last year, but considering last year’s team wasn’t very adept at scoring runs, that might not be as big a deal as it seems.  This team has some potential talent in the rotation, as they seem to do every year, and I am absolutely on the Yoenis Cespedes bandwagon, but when Coco Crisp is your opening day 3-hitter and your opening day starter, Brandon McCarthy, had a record of 9-9 the year before, you’re going to struggle, period. God bless the brave souls who will continue to show up at that Crypt to watch this team. It could get real ugly, real fast.

Seattle’s offense was historically awful last year, and while the addition of Jesus Montero and the progression of Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak will keep them from being “record setting bad” they still will struggle to score runs, and losing potential ace Michael Pineda will put more pressure on this offense to make huge steps forward, and they just aren’t ready.  They’re trending in the right direction, but they’re still going to be D.O.A. for at least this season and most likely the next before they start seeing results.

This Texas team can either be awesome, or REALLY awesome.  The variables that will determine where they end up will be Yu Darvish and Neftali Feliz. The rangers have showed a remarkable ability to rebound from a crushing world Series Loss in 2010, followed by losing the ace of their staff, to make it back to the World Series in 2011.  Unfortunately, they suffered and even more crushing defeat this time around, in one of the craziest, most dramatic games in MLB history, and then once again lost the Ace of their staff, this time to a division rival.  While the offense remains one of the best in baseball, and they have some pitchers with crazy upside, the inexperience in the rotation could be a major red flag.  The Rangers are banking a whole lot on Japanese import Darvish and former closer Feliz to hit the ground running, and I’m not sure how likely that is. The success rate for Japanese import pitchers is a bit sketchy, and I’m not sure the closer to starter transition is as easy to make as John Smoltz made it look. If Darvish and Feliz both pitch to their potential the Rangers can take this division, because their lineup remains as potent as ever, but those expecting that to happen are being wildly optimistic.

Lots of people expected the Anaheim Angels to have a busy off-season and throw some money around after missing the playoffs the last two years and watching division rival Texas make back to back World Series appearances. Expecting them to throw $317.5 million dollars at two players? That was not expected.  The Angels shook up the division and whole American League with their off-season spending spree.  The signing of Pujols will inject life in an offense that finished 10^th in the AL in Runs in 2011. With Kendrys Morales coming back from injury as well, this team should find themselves in the top 5 of runs scored in the American League.  While he was $163 million cheaper, CJ Wilson might end up having a similar impact to Pujols on the Angels fortunes.  Not only does Wilson make the Angels rotation comically deep, teaming up with Jared Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana to make up a pretty fearsome foursome, but also he severely weakens rival Texas’ rotation.  Now the Angels will be doing battle with a comparable offensive attack, and he clearly superior rotation, and with far fewer question marks. Angel’s owner Arte Moreno desperately wanted to make the Angels a legitimate World Series contender again this off-season. It wasn’t cheap, but it sure looks like Arte pulled it off.