Why Georgetown Will Win It All (Possibly)

Throughout this week, I will reveal my picks for this year’s Final Four, as well as detail why they are threats to win it all. My official pick to cut down the nets in Atlanta will run on Thursday.

 

Georgetown Hoyas (2 Seed – South Region)

Coach: John Thompson III

Conference: Big East

Record (Conf. Record): 25-6 (14-4)

Rankings: Associated Press – 5, USA Today/Coaches – 5, RPI – 10, KenPom.com – 12

Georgetown has had a rough go of it in the NCAA Tournament the last few years. In their last four trips to the tournament, they’ve lost twice in the first round and twice in the round of 32, and each of those four losses have been to double-digit seeds. Georgetown may be the most disappointing tournament of the last 5 years, not just failing to live up to expectations, but failing in spectacular fashion. Losing to 10-seed Davidson as a 2-seed in 2008. Losing to 11-seed NC State as a 3-seed last year. Getting blown out in the first round by 14-seed Ohio and 11-seed VCU in back-to-back years. In a college basketball season marked by an obscene amount of upsets and overwhelming parity, a team with Georgetown’s recent pedigree seems like they’d be a better bet to tie history by losing to a 15-seed in another flame-out than to make a run to Atlanta.

But run to Atlanta they shall, and there are two big reasons why Georgetown will be cutting down the nets: Otto Porter and a nasty, suffocating defense.

For those of you who are not familiar with his work, young Mr. Porter is Georgetown’s do-everything forward, and a favorite to win National Player of the Year. Pick a category, and Porter probably leads Georgetown in it: points, rebounds, steals, free-throw shooting and 3-point shooting, Otto is on top. At 6’8”, his height and shooting stroke make him a match-up problem no matter who Georgetown is playing, and he’s the best “big game” player Georgetown has had since Jeff Green, a 33 and 8 effort against Syracuse and a 19 and 9 game against Notre Dame being standouts. Green proved to be a great enough talent to lead his Hoya team to the final four, and Otto Porter is good enough to do the same.

Now while it hasn’t happened often throughout the season, if Porter happens to have a bad game or two in the tournament, they’re more than capable of grinding out a win regardless, thanks to their ability to simply keep teams from scoring ever. Not only do the Hoya’s play at one of the slowest tempos in the NCAA, they rank 4^th in the country in defensive efficiency, only allowing 84.4 points per 100 possessions. Ten times this season Georgetown has held their opponent to 50 points or fewer. Unlike some other teams in the tournament, they don’t need to be having a particularly good shooting day to come out with a win.

Anything can happen at any time, of course, but Georgetown’s bracket also provides a fairly straight-forward path to the final-four. The one team in the South Region that really provides much of a style mismatch is VCU, but they’re on the other side of the bracket and would have to make it through both Michigan and Kansas first. There will be trials and tribulations along the way, but Georgetown has the superstar, they have the defense, and 6 games from now they will also have the national title.

You can follow Andy on twitter at @AMOhoop34.