Why Indiana Will (Probably) Win It All

Throughout this week, I will reveal my picks for this year’s Final Four, as well as detail why they are threats to win it all. You can find parts 1 & 2 here and here. My official pick to cut down the nets in Atlanta will run tomorrow.

 

Indiana Hoosiers (1 Seed – East Region)

Coach: Tom Crean                          

Conference: Big Ten

Record (Conf. Record): 27-6 (14-4)

Rankings: Associated Press – 4, USA Today/Coaches – 4, RPI – 7, KenPom.com – 3

You win with talent. Not that I’m breaking any news here, but every year around this time people seem to forget that fact when filling their brackets, getting caught up in sleepers and storylines and everything except, you know, which team has the best basketball players.  Nine out of the last ten national champions have had future NBA lottery picks on their team, and Mason Plumlee, a member of Duke’s 2010 Championship squad, has a decent chance of making that a perfect ten in this year’s draft. Teams like UCONN in 2011, who weren’t a 1 or 2 seed, still had lottery picks like Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb on the roster. Great coaching and a favorable bracket are great, but if you don’t have the horses, you’re going to run into trouble, and no team in the tournament has more thoroughbreds than the Hoosiers of Indiana.

When talking about keys for Indiana, you have to start with the man in the middle, Cody Zeller. The 7-foot sophomore is an incredibly efficient player, averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds a game while shooting 57% from the field and 75% from the free-throw line. Zeller is not a terribly athletic player, but he has an array of moves around the basket, great touch, and a strong body that he knows how to leverage to his advantage. When he is assertive in calling for the ball and aggressive in his attacks, the Hoosiers are almost unbeatable, going 15-2 in the 17 games which Zeller had double-digit shot attempts. Any team that hopes to beat Indiana has to have someone who can give Zeller trouble around the basket, and there just aren’t many guys like that around.

However, keeping Zeller in check alone isn’t nearly enough to topple Indiana. The Hoosiers have 4 players including Zeller who average double figures, and Junior wing Victor Oladipo has turned into a one-man wrecking crew. The 6’5” wing from Maryland is the best two-way player in the country, averaging 14 points per game on 60% shooting (44% from 3) while being named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. As important as Zeller is to the Hoosiers fortunes, without Oladipo’s play-making on the perimeter and dynamism on defense Indiana’s title chances would be non-existant.

It’s not a two-man show at Indiana either. Chirstian Watford is a stretch four who provides sharp-shooting from distance on offense (49% from 3), and rebounding and length on defense with his 6’9” frame. Jordan Hulls is a guard with good ball control (3.1:1.2 Assist/TO) and mad bomber range (46% from 3 on 5 attempts a game). Freshman Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell plays beyond his years, doing a great job distributing to his many scoring options (4.2 APG) and making his freebies (80% from the FT line) in heavy minutes for a first-year player (28.2 MPG). 

A lot of people are down on Indiana’s title chances because they aren’t convinced that he’s anything more than a great recruiter who is average at best as an in-game tactician. For years, that same description followed John Calipari around, until he recruited enough talent to break through and win a title in 2012. Now analysts mention him as one of the best in game strategists in college. Indiana will win because they have better basketball players than everyone else. It may be a boring reason, but it doesn’t make it wrong. 

You can follow Andy on twitter at @AMOhoop34