Throughout this week, I will reveal my picks for this year’s Final Four, as well as detail why they are threats to win it all. You can find part 1 here. My official pick to cut down the nets in Atlanta will run on Thursday.
Pitt Panthers (8 Seed
– West Region)
Coach: Jamie Dixon
Conference: Big East
Record (Conf.
Record): 24-8 (12-6)
Rankings: Associated
Press – 20, USA Today/Coaches – 22, RPI – 43, KenPom.com – 7
In the NCAA tournament, more than in any other post-season
in sports, it’s better to be lucky than good. All too often a great team gets
stuck in a brutal part of the bracket and gets worn down before succumbing to
the one team that has the right style to beat them, while a less talented team
with serious flaws ends up in a favorable region with teams that don’t have the
necessary talent to exploit those weaknesses. Sometimes teams just get
inexplicably hot and win games they have no business winning. Villanova beating
Georgetown 66-64 in 1985 is considered by many to be the biggest upset in NCAA
Championship Game history, but that’s not really Georgetown’s fault. Villanova shot
an unbelievably absurd 78.6% from the field, missing only 6 shots the entire
game. A team gets on a run like that in the tourney and weird stuff starts to
happen. The 2013 Pitt Panthers, being in a very favorable region and shockingly
underrated by the selection committee, are going to make things get weird.
To even make a Final Four as an 8-seed you need three
things: weak top seeds, favorable matchups, and to be a lot better than your
garden variety 8-seed. The Panthers, by virtue of landing in the West Region
have all 3 going for them. With Gonzaga, Ohio State, and New Mexico occupying
the top 3 seeds, the west Region is home to the weakest 1, 2, and 3 seeds in
the tournament. Gonzaga’s shiny 31-2 record and perfect run through the West
Coast Conference, distracts from the fact that they haven’t beaten a single
team that’s a top-3 seed in the tournament, haven’t made it past the round of
32 since 2009, and haven’t been past the sweet 16 since 1998. Meanwhile,
Deshaun Thomas is the only player on Ohio State’s roster who averages double
figures, so a single off-day from him and Ohio State is dead in the water. And
New Mexico is essentially Gonzaga-lite, with only two previous tourney trips
since 2005, both of which ended in the round of 32. The top of this region is
ripe for upsets to clear the path for a lower seeded team like Pittsburgh to
crash the party.
Why Pittsburgh in particular? Largely, because they play the
exact style that can give Gonzaga fits. Pitt ranks 17th in the
country in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com’s advanced statistics
and boasts a large and deep front-line that will challenge Gonzaga centerpiece
Kelly Olynyk more than any other opponent he’s played this year. If Olynyk and
his frontcourt mate Elias Harris are bottled up, Gonzaga will find themselves
in a world of trouble.
The Panthers glacial pace of play and low scoring numbers
have given them the reputation of being an offensively challenged team. In
reality, Pitt’s offense ranks 9th nationally in efficiency, clocking
in at over 116 points per 100 possessions. This is backed up by the fact that
Pitt ranks 18th in the country in field goal percentage, and 7th
in assists per game which is all the more impressive when you consider the slow
pace they play at. Couple this with their superb defense, and you get a team
that is much better than an 8-seed. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index has Pitt
pegged as the 15th best team in the country, while KenPom has the
Panthers at 7th. This is a 3-seed or 4-seed team, not an 8, and with
their region seemingly wide open and their proficiency on both sides of the ball,
the time is right for the Pitt Panthers to make it to the final four and, with
a little weirdness, take the whole thing.
You can follow Andy on
twitter at @AMOhoop34
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